Trade War

Share this post

Trade War

dexter.substack.com

Discover more from Trade War

The latest, most vital news on China's economy and its business and political relationship with the world
Continue reading
Sign in

Trade War

Newsletter 37 - September 18, 2020

Dexter Roberts
Sep 19, 2020
1
Share this post

Trade War

dexter.substack.com
Share

Welcome to Newsletter 37, this week’s edition of Trade War. The World Trade Organization has ruled that the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods violate international rules. Meanwhile, Washington announced Friday that it will ban TikTok and Wechat effective this weekend.

Xi Jinping has called for private entrepreneurs to strengthen their relation with the Chinese Communist Party, the latest example of the increasing influence of ideology in China’s economy. And a new Pew poll shows that global trust in both Russia’s Putin and Xi is higher than trust in Trump.

The US, China and especially the WTO are all losers

The World Trade Organization has decided that the trade war tariff’s Trump has imposed on China - more than $350 billion worth - violate international rules. “The United States had not met its burden of demonstrating that the measures are provisionally justified,” a three-member panel ruled.

“China’s retaliatory tariffs were also arguably a violation of WTO rules,” Peterson Institute senior fellow Chad Bown told Bloomberg News. “Beijing took matters into its own hands by imposing tariffs over its grievances before any WTO rulings were issued. There are no winners in this dispute. The United States, China and especially the WTO are all losers.”

Twitter avatar for @jendeben
Jenny Leonard @jendeben
The World Trade Organization undercut the main justification for President Donald Trump’s trade war against China, saying that American tariffs on Chinese goods violate international rules. via @bbaschuk
bloomberg.comBloomberg - Are you a robot?
3:02 PM ∙ Sep 15, 2020
31Likes26Retweets

China feels vindicated, but gets very little

“China feels vindicated, but will get very little from this. The tariffs won’t go away or be reduced,” John Gong, an economics professor at the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) in Beijing said to the South China Morning Post.

Twitter avatar for @fbermingham
Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham
“China feels vindicated, but will get very little from this. The tariffs won’t go away or be reduced as a result of this, so the impact is very limited." Chinese scholars have their say on @wto ruling for China vs Trump's tariffs. Me & @cissy_chow report
scmp.comChina ‘feels vindicated, but gets little’ from WTO win over United StatesChinese officials ‘certainly happy’ with World Trade Organisation ruling but face a dilemma as ‘victory will not give rise to any concrete legal results’, analysts say.
11:06 AM ∙ Sep 16, 2020
5Likes4Retweets

“President Trump will do everything in his power”

The U.S. Commerce Department announced Friday that it will ban TikTok and Wechat effective this Sunday to “safeguard the national security of the United States.”

“Today’s announced prohibitions, when combined, protect users in the U.S. by eliminating access to these applications and significantly reducing their functionality,” the statement noted. 

“Today’s actions prove once again that President Trump will do everything in his power to guarantee our national security and protect Americans from the threats of the Chinese Communist Party,” said U.S. Department of Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

Twitter avatar for @CommerceGov
U.S. Commerce Dept. @CommerceGov
#News: Commerce Department Prohibits #WeChat and #TikTok Transactions to Protect the National Security of the United States.
commerce.govCommerce Department Prohibits WeChat and TikTok Transactions to Protect the National Security of the United StatesIn response to President Trump’s Executive Orders signed August 6, 2020, the Department of Commerce (Commerce) today announced prohibitions on transactions relating to mobile applications (apps) WeChat and TikTok to safeguard the national security of the United States.
11:42 AM ∙ Sep 18, 2020
1,822Likes1,065Retweets

Unite the private sector and the Communist Party of China

In yet another example of Xi Jinping’s aim to strengthen the role of ideology in the Chinese economy, private entrepreneurs are now being told they should have a closer relationship with the Communist Party of China.

“Chinese President Xi Jinping has stressed efforts to unite people from the private sector around the Communist Party of China (CPC) to better promote the healthy development of the private sector,” reports official mouthpiece CGTN.com.

Twitter avatar for @dtiffroberts
Dexter Roberts @dtiffroberts
"Chinese President Xi Jinping has stressed efforts to unite people from the private sector around the Communist Party of China (CPC) to better promote the healthy development of the private sector"
news.cgtn.comXi Jinping highlights private sector’s critical role as China strives for post-pandemic recoveryChinese President Xi Jinping has stressed efforts to unite people from the private sector around the Communist Party of China (CPC) to better promote the healthy development of the private sector, as China faces rising economic challenges amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
4:20 PM ∙ Sep 16, 2020
5Likes2Retweets

Greater global trust in Putin and Xi than Trump

Global confidence in the U.S. has fallen to historic lows and president Trump is trusted less than Xi Jinping and Russia’s Putin, the latest poll by the Pew Research Center shows.

The impact of the U.S. mishandling of the coronavirus has contributed to the decline, Pew says in its survey of 13 countries including Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and European nations such as France, the United Kingdom, and Germany.

Meanwhile, “majorities or pluralities in these [polled] countries have named China as the world’s leading economic power in recent years, and that remains true in 2020. The exceptions are South Korea and Japan, where people see the U.S. as the world’s top economy.”

Twitter avatar for @RNicholasBurns
Nicholas Burns @RNicholasBurns
The new Pew Poll is devastating for how the world sees us. Confidence in the U.S. has plummeted to historic lows. The global public has even greater trust in Putin and Xi Jinping than Trump. We need new leadership. | Pew Research Center
pewresearch.orgU.S. Image Plummets Internationally as Most Say Country Has Handled Coronavirus BadlyIn several countries, favorable views of the U.S. are at their lowest point since the Center began polling on this topic two decades ago.
5:03 PM ∙ Sep 15, 2020
648Likes375Retweets

China hoped it could charm Europe..

“China hoped it could charm Europe as relations with the US went south, but its behavior on Hong Kong, Xinjiang, trade, the pandemic and other issues has been alienating people,” tweets New York Times reporter Steven Lee Myers.

“It makes it really hard for them to convey a message of cooperation and peacefulness and harmonious society, if at the same time you see schoolgirls being beaten up by the Hong Kong police,” Janka Oertel, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told the New York Times, referring to a recent incident widely condemned after a video of it was shared on social media.

Twitter avatar for @stevenleemyers
Steven Lee Myers @stevenleemyers
China hoped it could charm Europe as relations with the US went south, but its behavior on Hong Kong, Xinjiang, trade, the pandemic and other issues has been alienating people, signaling a deeper isolation than many in Beijing seem to realize.
nytimes.comChina, Seeking a Friend in Europe, Finds Rising Anger and FrustrationBeijing’s hopes of using Europe as a counterweight to the United States have faltered as country after country confronts China over trade, Hong Kong, human rights and other issues.
10:28 PM ∙ Sep 17, 2020
3Likes7Retweets

Reshoring but to Taiwan

Since the beginning of last year more than $38 billion of investment, mainly from technology companies, has returned to Taiwan, its economic affairs minister said recently, reported Bloomberg News.

Tech manufacturers including Innolux Corp., Accton Technology Corp. and Quanta Computer Inc. are all now building new factories in Taiwan. “The moves by Taiwanese companies are in contrast with U.S. firms, which haven’t responded to President Donald Trump’s calls to return home,” writes Bloomberg.

Twitter avatar for @BonnieGlaser
Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀 @BonnieGlaser
Since January 2019, more than NT$1.1 trillion ($38 billion) of Taiwanese investment has come back to Taiwan, with tech manufacturers including Innolux Corp., Accton Technology Corp. and Quanta Computer Inc. building new factories in Taiwan. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @bpolitics
bloomberg.comBloomberg - Are you a robot?
9:50 PM ∙ Sep 14, 2020
98Likes43Retweets

China-led AIIB girds for losses

The slumping global economy and COVID-19 are taking a toll on the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, reported Nikkei Asian Review.

“The multinational lending institution's latest financial statement shows that the bank's impairment provisions have jumped nearly tenfold during the first half of 2020 from a year earlier, cutting its net profit by more than half during that same period.”

Twitter avatar for @ZColemanHK
Zach Coleman @ZColemanHK
With #COVID19, China-led AIIB girds for first significant losses on its development loans, with impairment provisions climbing 10-fold
asia.nikkei.comChina-led AIIB’s troubled loans spike amid pandemicCredit risk ‘increased significantly,’ particularly in southern and western Asia
5:15 AM ∙ Sep 17, 2020

Notable/In Depth

Huawei’s mobile business looks to also be suffering, not just its 5G base stations, as shown in this graphic by ChinaTalk.

Twitter avatar for @pstAsiatech
Paul Triolo @pstAsiatech
Nice graphic...Just How Screwed is Huawei? - ChinaTalk
chinatalk.substack.comJust How Screwed is Huawei?A run on Huawei phones shows that their mobile business may be even more done for than their 5G base stations
12:35 PM ∙ Sep 16, 2020
11Likes2Retweets

The Belt and Road Initiative is getting a lot less play in China’s state media, a possible sign of lessened ambitions, tweets MacroPolo China’s Neil Thomas.

Twitter avatar for @neilthomas123
Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123
What happened to China's Belt and Road Initiative? The BRI has become far less prominent in state media. COVID seems an obvious factor for the 2020 drop, but there was already a dip in 2019. Could Beijing also be revising its BRI ambitions downward due to international blowback?
Image
4:32 PM ∙ Sep 15, 2020
105Likes61Retweets

Upcoming talk

Joining a 50-year long tradition, I will speak at Delhi’s Institute of Chinese Studies next Wednesday (5:30 am EST so not an easy time zone for those stateside..)

Twitter avatar for @ics_delhi
ICS, New Delhi @ics_delhi
WEDNESDAY SEMINAR | The Myth of Chinese #Capitalism: #China’s Troubled Transition from Factory of the World to Superpower | Dexter Roberts (@dtiffroberts), Non-Resident Senior Fellow, @AtlanticCouncil, & Fellow, @MansfieldCenter | 23 Sept. 2020 @ 3 pm IST
Image
9:46 AM ∙ Sep 17, 2020
2Likes2Retweets
1
Share this post

Trade War

dexter.substack.com
Share
Comments
Top
New
Community

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Dexter Roberts
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing