Trade War

Newsletter 303 - May 10, 2026

Welcome to the 303rd edition of Trade War.

Don’t expect huge breakthroughs at the Trump-Xi summit next week—announcements of major Chinese investments into the US are unlikely, for example. Tariff truce extension on the agenda and China will commit to big ticket purchases of beans and Boeings. And Washington will further press Beijing to help secure Strait of Hormuz.

Beijing likely to push for quid pro quo where a reliable supply of Chinese rare earths for the US is balanced with further access to advanced American semiconductors for China. And Xi Jinping will pressure Trump to shift US position on Taiwan in Beijing’s favor.

American CEOs from companies including Boeing, Mastercard, and Citigroup will accompany Trump to China. Confusion over Defense Department list of Chinese military-affiliated companies illustrates White House’s chaotic China policy. And Chinese exports beat expectations growing 14.1% in April, over a year earlier.

Notable/In depth ~

• China believes time is on its side when it comes to taking Taiwan

• Foreign investment doesn’t always bring friends to China or US

• Beating China “a reliable weapon” against state AI regulation