Welcome to the 184th edition of Trade War.
Golden Week spending inches above pre-pandemic levels. Two US banks upgrade their China growth forecasts for the year to 5% but the Atlantic Council and Rhodium Group predict it will fall below 4%.
As another Third Plenum approaches, a former World Bank country director calls for sweeping economic reforms to restart China’s growth. And in its latest outlook for Asia, the World Bank reduces its prognosis for China’s growth next year from 4.8% to 4.4%, citing high debt, the weak property sector, and “longer-term structural factors.”
Blacklisted SMIC still selling chips to the US, one of its major markets. Semiconductor makers continue to push back on Biden’s China policy. And Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio says “chips [are] like oil,” contrasting the US sanctions on China today with those on Japan in 1941, just before the outbreak of war.
And a bipartisan group of US Senators arrives in China, the first congressional visit since 2019; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer tells Shanghai party chief America will compete with China but doesn’t want conflict. And BYD to surpass Tesla as global EV leader.
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