Welcome to the 230th edition of Trade War.
First, my thoughts on the breaking news that the EU has decided to raise tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, including how they differ from those imposed earlier by the US and Canada - speaking to Germany’s English broadcaster DW News.
And an event worth checking out: US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns is coming to Montana (virtually), hosted by the Mansfield Center, to discuss US-China relations and more, on October 9, 7:30 pm MDT. Sign up to attend in this link.
On to the news ~
China’s high-flying stocks are soaring now but may be due for a dramatic fall, as happened following a bull run in 2015. People rush property showrooms following policy easing. Still, don't expect the sweeping stimulus to solve China’s deep-seated structural economic problems.
The European Union votes to up tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. But unlike US and Canada’s sanctions, the EU measures leave room for further expansion into the Europe market. And a new ranking of American companies most at risk for their exposure to China puts Ford Motor at the top of the list.
China has a low-key celebration for its 75th anniversary on October 1. Train travel soars at beginning of Golden Week, a positive sign of people spending again. Hashtags highlighting the notoriously large crowds of tourists during the National Day holiday, flood social media.
And the author of this newsletter gets nostalgic remembering the year of the 50th anniversary celebration, when Zhu Rongji publicly berated Businessweek for a tough article on the then premier’s struggle to fix an ailing economy (and for a magazine cover picturing Zhu in a falling star.)
Notable/In depth
Harris or Trump policy on China? “All crows under heaven are the same black”
A Beijing playbook for economic & cyber warfare against Taiwan
“What explains the exodus of people and capital from China? And what does this imply for Xi Jinping's regime?” asks University of Toronto’s Lynette Ong
China’s stocks rise most in 16 years
China’s benchmark CSI 300 index is on a tear following the raft of new stimulus measures, posting a 8.5 percent jump on Monday, its biggest rise since 2008. The week before the index gained 15.7 percent, the most in 16 years.
Markets are now closed with China on break for its weeklong National Day holiday but a big question awaits after they reopen: how long will the bull run last and will it end in tears?
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