Trade War

Newsletter 27 - July 6, 2020

Welcome to newsletter 27, the latest edition of Trade War. As has been true a lot recently, the news of the week has been dominated by politics, much of it alarming. This time it was the passage of Hong Kong’s new National Security Law, seen by many as signaling the end of the territory’s special status as a bastion for civil liberties unavailable in the rest of China.

The law, which lists four broad categories of offenses including terrorism, subversion, separatism, and collusion, provides sentences that can extend to life in prison. The fact that each is poorly defined has many fearing what is illegal could encompass a whole range of activities until now considered acceptable, from meetings with representatives of foreign NGOs to even protesting outside government offices.

End of one country, two systems

The harsh law is widely seen as ending the “one country, two systems” that guaranteed Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy from China until 2047. “China rolled back the autonomy of Hong Kong’s governance that’s been in place since the city’s handover from British colonial rule,” write James Areddy and Chun Han Wong, reporters at the Wall Street Journal.

“The national-security law’s passage showed the Communist Party’s determination to constrain a Western style of governance that has made the city a center for commerce in East Asia.”

Takeover of Hong Kong

With its full text including roughly 10,000 characters and 66 articles, the law “fundamentally [alters] the legal landscape in Hong Kong,” writes the Wall Street Journal’s Chun Han Wong.

“Hong Kong police made their first arrests while enforcing the city’s extraordinary new national-security law hours after it took effect—even as legal experts scrambled to parse its full implications.”

Zurich, Bermuda, or Singapore

The law is seen as likely to hurt Hong Kong’s role as an important international financial center.

"A city that aspires to sit aside New York and London will end up looking increasingly like a Zurich, or Bermuda, or Singapore,” write David Fickling and Nisha Gopalan for Bloomberg Opinion. "Hong Kong's days as a capital of capital are fading.”

Strained relations

China has succeeded in straining relations with twelve of the top twenty countries and regions to which it exports, including the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India, the United Kingdom, Taiwan, Australia, and Canada.

This reality is a potential obstacle to its future economic growth, warns market commentator Neil Kimberley in an opinion piece in the South China Morning Post. “On a country-by-country basis, it could plausibly be argued that other nations need China more than China needs them, but collectively that argument is harder to make,” he writes.

Energy purchases as the biggest casualty of ‘phase one’

While China struggles to meet the agricultural purchase promises of the “phase one” trade deal, even more difficult will be the energy targets.

“Economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has cast doubt on whether China can meet its targets to buy U.S. goods under this year’s trade deal—with energy emerging as the biggest casualty,” reports Josh Zumbrun in the Wall Street Journal.

“China has made strides toward its agricultural and manufacturing targets, but it remains far behind—maybe hopelessly far—an ambitious target for purchases of oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products like propane and butane, and coal.”

43 percent factories considering relocation

A manufacturing survey reveals how hard the COVID-19-induced global economic downturn is hitting China’s export sector.

The annual Standard Chartered Bank survey finds that 43 percent of factories in China’s Greater Bay Area, comprising Hong Kong, Macau, and nine Guangdong cities, are actively considering relocating out of China, reports He Huifeng in the South China Morning Post.

BEST case scenario?

Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly says that in the best-case scenario, the recovery of the U.S. economy will take four to five years, writes Reuters reporter Heather Long. “If we end up with a pervasive long-lasting hit to the economy, then it could take longer,” the Fed official says.

Separate offensive by Huawei

A fascinating piece looks at the demise of Nortel, once Canada’s hope for a global telecom leader, and examines both the role of a massive still unsolved hack, along with its failure to keep competing with China’s fast-rising Huawei.

“The Nortel hack coincided with a separate offensive by Huawei. This one was totally legal and arguably even more damaging,” writes Natalie Obiko Pearson in Bloomberg Businessweek.

“While Nortel struggled, Huawei thrived thanks to its unique structure—it was privately held, enjoyed generous credit lines from state-owned banks, and had an ability to absorb losses for years before making money on its products. It poached Nortel’s biggest customers and, eventually, hired away the researchers who would give it the lead in 5G networks.”

Notable/In Depth

How containers revolutionized global trade, from the Peterson Institute’s Trade Talks Podcast.

“The almost instantaneous translation and pirating of Hamilton & its very warm reception on Chinese internet this 4th of July feels somehow both very Chinese AND American,” tweets Jiayang Fan, staff writer at The New Yorker.

Informative short video explaining our recent toilet paper shortages.

Book events

Video from my recent book talk on The Myth of Chinese Capitalism at The George Washington University Sigur Center for Asian Studies.

And more upcoming book talks you can consider checking out, the first happening via The Royal Asiatic Society of Beijing (members only) on Wednesday July 8, details below and in this link.

And a second happening a day later on Thursday, via Mumbai’s Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations. Register in the link.

Trade War

Newsletter 26 - June 29, 2020

Welcome to the latest edition of Trade War. This week was another where politics and security trumped economics and business, with both the U.S. and India taking steps to sanction Chinese companies.

In the U.S., the Defense Department released a list of Chinese companies, including Huawei, that it said were linked to China’s military and thus pose a security risk, while India’s government has banned dozens of Chinese apps, including short video sensation TikTok, saying they could damage national sovereignty.

China, for its part, has warned the U.S. about political “red lines” that if crossed could jeopardize the trade deal.

Invoke emergency economic powers

As Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian of Axios and Zach Dorfman of Aspen Institute write: “The Defense Department has made public for the first time a list of twenty Chinese companies that are operating in the U.S. that are tied to the Chinese military,” including Huawei, Hangzhou Hikvision, China Railway Construction Corporation, and China Telecommunications Corporation.

Why does it matter? President Trump has the authority to invoke emergency economic powers, including sanctions, against the 20 companies on the list,” they explain.

Prejudicial to sovereignty and integrity

Meanwhile, in a surprise move, the Indian government announced on June 28 that it is banning 59 Chinese mobile apps “which are prejudicial to sovereignty and integrity of India, defence of India, security of state and public order,” tweets Tanvi Madan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Big blow for China tech

The move could significantly hurt China’s tech companies “which have been looking to developing countries such as India to act as a counterweight to the U.S. for their expansion strategies,” tweets CNBC Beijing bureau chief Eunice Yoon, citing a Wall Street Journal article.

611 million downloads in India

TikTok, for example, has seen about 30 percent of all downloads coming from India, tweets Dhruva Jaishankar, a director at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation.

Red lines shouldn’t be crossed

During the recent Hawaii meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi apparently delivered a warning: both sides had to “work together,” the Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the conversations.

“The U.S. side should refrain from going too far with meddling,” and “red lines shouldn’t be crossed,” a Chinese official warned the Wall Street Journal. China’s “red lines” here are seen as those it perceives as challenging its sovereignty over Hong Kong and claim to Taiwan.

“You can’t keep asking us to buy your stuff and at the same time keep beating up on us,” said Mei Xinyu, an analyst at a Chinese think tank. “That’s not how it works.”

Influence the new president

A revealing story from the Wall Street Journal’s Brian Spegele explains how Trump has been a big beneficiary of donations connected to the Chinese state. “Trump was a huge question mark for China when he took the White House. Then huge donations flowed to his re-election bid from a secretive network closely tied to Beijing,” tweets Spegele.

“The effort had early success in gaining access for those involved, helping them meet the president or top Republicans at fundraisers or at an internal GOP leadership meeting. It reveals how China seeks to build inroads into U.S. politics, gather information on U.S. leaders and if possible affect policy-making,” the Journal reports.

Australians trust in China declines precipitously

Meanwhile, Australians are losing trust in the Chinese government, a survey by the Sydney-based Lowy Institute shows. “Trust in China among Australians has more than halved amid diplomatic and trade disputes, with only 23% saying they trusted Beijing to act responsibly in the world compared to a 52% reading two years ago,” reports Reuters, citing the poll.

“Trust in our largest trading partner - China - has declined precipitously. Confidence in China’s leader Xi Jinping, has fallen even further,” wrote Lowy Institute executive director Michael Fullilove, Reuters reports.

Josef Stalin’s successor

“As China grew richer and stronger, we believed, the Chinese Communist Party would liberalize to meet the rising democratic aspirations of its people,” said U.S. national security adviser Robert O’Brien in an extremely hard-hitting recent speech aimed directly at China’s top leadership. “Unfortunately, it turned out to be very naïve.”

“Let us be clear, the Chinese Communist Party is a Marxist-Leninist organization. The Party General Secretary Xi Jinping sees himself as Josef Stalin’s successor.”

There is no ideological competition

Meanwhile, here’s an interesting counterpoint from China expert and longtime American diplomat Chas Freeman, who argues the opposite in an interview with The Wire China: that Beijing is not ideological at all, at least when it goes overseas.

“There is no ideological competition. Internationally, China is not attempting to export its system, which frankly, it has great trouble even defining for its own people. We [the U.S.] remain armed evangelists; we like to export our ideology.”

The U.S. has “sought in some ways to beat China back into underdevelopment. We object to its progress. We are trying to cut it off from foreign markets, whether in our opposition to the Belt and Road Initiative or through the attacks on Huawei, ZTE, and other Chinese technology companies,” Freeman says.

Notable/In Depth

This chart on the lobster trade and blog from April, both from Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Brad Setser, break down the intricacies of how Chinese tariffs do and don’t impact U.S. seafood sales.

Beijing announced it will impose visa restrictions on Americans with “egregious conduct” on Hong Kong, a retaliatory move following Washington’s decision to restrict visas for Chinese officials who are seen to undermine the territory, the South China Morning reports.

Retire 'Taiwan reunifying with the mainland” and replace with it “being taken over,” is my contribution to the now indispensable POLITICO China Watcher’s weekly list of tired China narratives.

essential reading

“Roberts’ book is the latest in an extensive literature highlighting the deep fractures in the Chinese economic model,” writes John West for the Lowy Institute’s “The Interpreter” in his kind review. The Myth of Chinese Capitalism “makes an important contribution to our understanding of China, and should be essential reading for all China-watchers.”

Trade War

Newsletter 25 - June 22, 2020

Welcome to the latest edition of Trade War. The biggest news of the week was the allegation that Donald Trump promised to go easy on China, in exchange for Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreeing to buy more American agricultural products, a move the U.S. president saw as supporting his November reelection prospects. This is the charge made by Trump’s former National Security Advisor John Bolton in his new book The Room Where it Happened.

Bolton bombshell

Bolton also writes in an article excerpted from his book in the Wall Street Journal, that Trump earlier backtracked on putting sanctions on telecom maker ZTE, a move that would have destroyed the Chinese company. The reversal aimed to improve chances of getting a trade deal with China signed; Trump later offered to ease up U.S. pressure on Huawei, for the same reason. He also asked for China’s help in buying wheat and soybeans, in order to strengthen his support amongst U.S. farmers, in a June meeting last year he had with Xi in Osaka, Japan.

Trump pleads with Xi

Trump “turned the conversation to the coming U.S. presidential election, alluding to China’s economic capability and pleading with Xi to ensure he’d win. He stressed the importance of farmers and increased Chinese purchases of soybeans and wheat in the electoral outcome,” Bolton writes in the Journal.

Tiananmen Square Massacre: “Who cares about it?”

In two of his more explosive allegations, Bolton writes that Trump told Xi that he “should go ahead with building the camps [in Xinjiang], which Trump thought was exactly the right thing to do,” and that on the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre in 2019, Trump refused to issue a White House statement, saying “who cares about it? I’m trying to make a deal. I don’t want anything.”

Interesting timing

Just after the news broke that Trump asked China for more agricultural purchases to improve his reelection prospects, Beijing has announced plans to do exactly that: have its state-owned buyers work to meet the phase-one purchase obligations, Bloomberg News reports.

Promises, promises

Earlier after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Hawaii he tweeted that Yang had “recommitted to completing and honoring all of the obligations” of the phase-one deal.

That won’t be easy: “China purchased only $4.65 billion in the first four months of the year, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show. That’s only 13% of the goal set in the trade deal and almost 40% below the same period in 2017,” Bloomberg News reports.

‘Complete decoupling from China’

Meanwhile, in keeping with the usual erratic approach seemingly favored by the White House, the president tweeted on Thursday that the U.S. could still potentially pursue a “complete decoupling from China,” Bloomberg reports.  

China’s bare-knuckled geopolitical fistfights

A violent clash between China and India disputing the two countries high Himalayan border left 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers dead, The Guardian reports.

“China’s coronavirus mask diplomacy has given way to bare-knuckled geopolitical fistfights with a growing array of its neighbors,” write Lindsey W. Ford and Julian Gewirtz in Foreign Policy. Recently “it clashed with India in one of the worst border flare-ups in decades, escalated standoffs with Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea, pressured Taiwan with nighttime drills in the Taiwan Strait, and threatened Australia with boycotts of wine, beef, barley, and Chinese students.”

And policymakers are increasingly alarmed

The White House says growing China power “harms vital American interests and undermines the sovereignty and dignity of countries and individuals around the world.” The EU, has called China a “systemic rival” and “economic competitor.” Australia has banned Huawei’s 5G technology. Meanwhile in Asia, Vietnam calls China’s maritime tactics “unilateral actions, power-based coercion, violation of international law, militarization.”

“Countries are realizing that China’s rise and ensuing departure from tenets of domestic and foreign policy, instilled during the era of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, break from their own views. Policymakers are increasingly alarmed,” write Paul Haenle and Lucas Tcheyan of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Not a market economy

After years of pushing for formal designation by the World Trade Organization for market-economy status, China has given up, reports Bloomberg News.

It matters because the designation would have given China “stronger footing with commercial partners while also curtailing their ability to retaliate [against China] over trade disputes.” Now the EU and others have “greater legal certainty to combat low-price Chinese exports with artificially high tariffs.”

‘No question’ Huawei routed data to China

Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt said in an interview with BBC Radio and reported by CNBC, that it is certain Huawei routed data to China. “There’s no question that information from Huawei routers has ultimately ended up in hands that would appear to be the state,” Schmidt said. “However that happened, we’re sure it happened.”

Victims of hostage diplomacy?

Meanwhile in China two Canadians have been charged with espionage; Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig were arrested on December 10, 2018, just days after the arrest in Canada of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou.

“The decision to prosecute the men, who have been widely described as victims of ‘hostage diplomacy,’ comes after a British Columbia court denied an initial application for Ms. Meng to be released from Canada, where she is fighting extradition to the U.S.,” writes Nathan Vanderklippe of the Globe and Mail.

Living in her Vancouver mansion

And compare the timelines below showing the treatment of Huawei’s Meng in Canada, and the Canadians held in China, in this AFP graphic.

Notable/In Depth

In case you thought China was using COVID-19 as an opportunity to snap up cheap assets around the world, that’s not what the numbers show, argues Rhodium Group’s Thilo Hanemann.

“The Commerce Department was not amused. It tried again this May, forbidding the sale of U.S. technology not only to Huawei, but also HiSilicon’s suppliers,” writes the Washington Post’s Eva Dou in this interesting profile of Huawei’s chip maker.

“The Chinese Politburo carefully cultivates an image of China for the world to see. It is the China of sleek skyscrapers ... author Dexter Roberts presents a radically different portrait: it could be called ‘the real China’”, writes Frank Schell in a review of The Myth of Chinese Capitalism for Mumbai’s Gateway House.

Upcoming talk

GWU’s Sigur Center for Asian Studies "New Books in Asian Studies"series lecture next Thursday. Please join if you have time. Details in link below.

Trade War

Newsletter 24 - June 15, 2020

Welcome to newsletter 24. In the last week American senators have introduced a bill aimed at China’s technology theft. Meanwhile, China announced it will spend $1 trillion in an effort to leapfrog U.S. technology capabilities.

Thought of the week (year, decade..) - while punitive actions against China’s unfair trading practices may be necessary, the U.S. had better also expend a lot more effort and money on doing key research and development to ensure it doesn’t get eclipsed technologically by China on 5G, 6G, robotics, AI, and more.

Better than battering

That‘s a point I made in reference to a question on Huawei (starts at 37:40) in this discussion I joined last week with former longtime Treasury department senior official Robert Dohner, China data collection agency China Beige Book’s CEO Leland Miller, and Miyeon Oh, director of the Asia Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Diminishing American tech leaders

As also mentioned above, one sure way to hurt U.S. competitiveness is for Washington to put more visa restrictions on Chinese technology students. James McGregor, longtime businessman in China and author, warns in a tweet that visa blocks “would be a great way for the US to diminish American tech leaders.”

Also check out MacroPolo’s Global AI Talent Tracker which finds that the U.S. today has a “large lead” in top-tier AI research while also noting that two-thirds of AI researchers working in the United States “received undergraduate degrees in other countries.”

“China is the largest source of top-tier researchers, with 29% of these researchers having received undergraduate degrees in China. But the majority of those Chinese researchers (56%) go on to study, work, and live in the United States,” the report notes.

There will be penalties

Two American senators have introduced a bill that requires that the U.S. president report twice a year on foreign companies and individuals that are believed to be stealing U.S. trade secrets and respond with penalties, including economic sanctions, reports Reuters.

Introduced by Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen and Republican Senator Ben Sasse the bill could freeze the U.S. assets and bar American companies and individuals from doing business with those accused of theft and is clearly aimed at China.

“I think there is a big deterrent benefit to making it clear upfront that when we find this kind of theft, there will be penalties,” Van Hollen said.

China’s trillion-dollar campaign

According to a plan announced earlier this year by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a minimum of $1.4 trillion will be invested over the next five years into artificial intelligence, data centers, mobile communications and more.

“China has embarked on a new trillion-dollar campaign to develop next-generation technologies as it seeks to catapult the communist nation ahead of the U.S. in critical areas,” the Wall Street Journal reports. “Since the start of the year, municipal governments in Beijing, Shanghai and more than a dozen other localities have pledged 6.61 trillion yuan ($935 billion) to the cause,” the article says.

Abandoning the gospel of free trade

Trump’s trade war has not resuscitated U.S. manufacturing nor has it pushed global supply chains to relocate out of Asia, argues Noah Smith in Bloomberg Opinion. That failure plus “weakness of the traditional free-trade system that was glaringly exposed by the coronavirus shutdown,” has think tank American Compass advocating a radical shift in U.S. policy, something they call the “Reshoring Initiative,” the columnist explains.

The new think tank advocates for, as Smith puts it, “abandoning the gospel of free trade and embracing industrial policy” and a “wholesale reordering of the relationship between government and industry in the U.S. that goes against decades of orthodoxy.”

“The Reshoring Initiative recommends not just traditional policies such as workforce training and tax incentives, but bold and novel steps like domestic-content requirements for manufacturers, major alterations to the World Trade Organization and government-sponsored corporate research consortiums,” Smith writes.

Agreeing to China’s demands

New concerns have flared about Zoom, the video-conferencing company that has become ubiquitous during the virus quarantines, and whether it is too answerable to the Chinese government’s calls for censorship.

Zoom admitted last week that the Chinese government requested that it “suspend the accounts of several U.S.- and Hong Kong-based Chinese activists for holding events commemorating the anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre,” Axios reports. “The statement indicates that Zoom is agreeing to China's demands to construct an in-company censorship apparatus to prevent mainland users from accessing sensitive meetings.”

Weakening Washington’s greatest asset: alliances

China is starting to root for a Trump victory, writes Bloomberg News. “If Biden is elected, I think this could be more dangerous for China, because he will work with allies to target China, whereas Trump is destroying U.S. alliances,” said Zhou Xiaoming, a former Chinese trade negotiator, speaking to the financial news agency.

“Four current officials echoed that sentiment, saying many in the Chinese government believed a Trump victory could help Beijing by weakening what they saw as Washington’s greatest asset for checking China’s widening influence,” the article notes.

Notable/In Depth

How can we stop the U.S. and China from entering an “information winter” was the topic of this fascinating discussion moderated by Politico’s David Wertime.

With Wall Street Journal reporter Lingling Wei (coauthor of the new book Superpower Showdown), former Wall Street Journal and Washington Post editor Marcus Brauchli, and former senior director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council Evan Medeiros.

Mao's infatuation with Stalin, Deng's productivity-releasing reforms, and a deep dive into China’s household registration and dual land systems are all discussed in this wide-ranging podcast I did with Readara.

China: Capitalism, But Not As We Know It was the discussion of this interview I did with China’s executive MBA school CKGSB’s Knowledge Magazine.

And an interesting podcast on how COVID-19 and travel restrictions have affected Nigerian traders to China, from Trade Talks of the Peterson Institute.

Trade War

Newsletter 23 - June 9, 2020

Welcome to newsletter 23 and apologies for its one-day late publication. This week saw the dimensions of the U.S.-China economic competition become ever more apparent.

In Washington the Trump administration announced plans to further limit Chinese companies access to U.S. stock exchanges and financing while in Beijing officials continue what looks like a major campaign to leverage their now successful response to COVID-19 to further strengthen China’s soft power.

Wrong and dangerous

“For decades, Chinese companies have availed themselves of the benefits of United States financial markets, and capital raised in the United States has helped fuel China’s rapid economic growth,” states the White House memorandum which aims to force Chinese companies that don’t follow the same transparency guidelines as other listed companies to exit U.S. exchanges.

“While China reaps advantages from American markets, however, the Chinese government has consistently prevented Chinese companies and companies with significant operations in China from abiding by the investor protections that apply to all companies listing on United States stock exchanges.  It is both wrong and dangerous for China to benefit from our capital markets without complying with critical protections that investors in those markets rightfully expect and deserve.”

We have to have an industrial policy

While claiming that he feels very good about the progress of the phase-one trade deal (hard to believe that assertion, I’m afraid), U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also raised some eyebrows by calling for the U.S. to adopt an industrial policy to counter China’s.

“We need a policy, be it subsidies, or tariffs, or whatever it takes. We have to have an industrial policy so we never find ourselves in this position again,” Lighthizer said, reports Bloomberg News reporter Jenny Leonard.

China suspends debt repayment?

On Sunday, Chinese officials launched what may be a major new plank in their effort to use the COVID-19 crisis to strengthen their soft power globally. Without yet specifying which countries will benefit, China’s State Council announced that it will suspend debt repayments for 77 developing countries and launch a $2 billion fund to help countries deal with the virus over the next two years.

Positive and open

And while it wasn’t noticed much as news about Hong Kong dominated headlines, during the recent National People’s Congress China’s premier Li Keqiang expressed interested in joining the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership).

CPTPP is the trade organization which includes Australia, Canada, Vietnam, Japan, and others, and was founded 18 months ago, as successor to the failed Trans-Pacific Partnership, following Trump’s decision to pull support for the earlier agreement. China “has a positive and open attitude towards joining CPTPP,” Li said, writes former U.S. trade official Wendy Cutler in a piece for Nikkei Asian Review.

Stabilize social order in Hong Kong

Meanwhile the Chinese government is ratcheting up the pressure on major companies that operate in Hong Kong to publicly state their support for the controversial national security law, with HSBC being the latest to give in.

HSBC “broke its silence over NSL, saying the bank "respects and supports all laws that stabilize social order in HK, and boost economic development." HSBC Asia-Pacific chief Peter Wong also signed petition in support of national security law earlier, per the bank,” tweets Alan Lum, a Hong Kong-based journalist.

Notable/In Depth

The East Asian supply chain, as shown by Apple’s experience, has weathered the pandemic remarkably well argues Damien Ma in MacroPolo.

Joining the WTO probably grew jobs in the U.S., argues Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Development Charles Kenny in a provocative tweet.

A plurality of Americans don’t think Chinese people should be blamed for the pandemic, according to a national survey by Boston University researchers.

Catch me talking recently about the Future of Chinese Capitalism, the national security law in Hong Kong and the U.S. response, and the economic impact of Covid-19 on China, in this video from the Mercator Institute for China Studies.

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